Donald Trump declared in 2018 that North Korea was no longer a nuclear threat. The numbers tell a different story.
Trump met Kim Jong Un three times during his first term as their relationship shifted from brinkmanship to bromance. The two may even meet again when the president visits China in May.
Kim, though, never slowed his nuclear program, hailed in state propaganda as the “sword and shield” protecting his rule. After years of threatening nuclear war on the US, Pyongyang may now have the ability to fight one.
Production of fissile material and intercontinental ballistic missiles has reached a point where North Korea could challenge US homeland defenses.
South Korea’s president said this year that Pyongyang can produce enough fissile material for about 20 nuclear bombs annually, putting it on a trajectory to rival France’s stockpile within a decade in size, if not sophistication. During Trump’s first term, experts estimated production was at about six bombs’ worth.
North Korea isn’t just building more weapons; it’s building better ones. These include solid-fuel missiles that are easier to hide and quicker to deploy, plus ICBMs capable of carrying heavier payloads. It has sent missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine, where they’ve likely been battle-tested against US air-defense systems.
Production is speeding up. That matters because scale changes the game. Quantity, not capability, is now the threat.
Diplomacy looks like a relic. Kim has ignored calls to return to talks and shown no sign that Trump can entice him to abandon his nuclear ambitions.
True, North Korea hasn’t proven it can reliably deliver a warhead that survives reentry.
But recent events in Iran and Venezuela have shown that regimes without a credible nuclear deterrent remain vulnerable.
In Pyongyang, that lesson reinforces the belief that nuclear weapons are not just leverage, but the ultimate guarantee of survival. — Jon Herskovitz